Oscar Picks & Predictions
I usually don’t get too wrapped up in Oscar season as the Academy’s picks rarely line up with my own but this year’s nominees seem closer to the mark than ever I was asked to write about them for my company so I said “sure!” and thought I would repost here. The past few years had some pretty unconventional choices for Best Picture (“The Hurt Locker”, “Slumdog Millionaire”, “No Country For Old Men”, “The Departed”), so the question is whether the Academy will revert to their stodgy ways and anoint “The King’s Speech” or go with something more daring? Here, with brief explanations are my picks for the big 8 categories: what I would vote for, what I think the Academy will vote for and what nominees, if any, have a chance to upset. And the Oscar goes to…
BEST PICTURE
My Pick: Inception
Oscar’s Pick: The King’s Speech
Spoiler: The Social Network
Thanks to an expanded lineup of ten films the Academy has surprisingly done a pretty good job at picking out the best films of the year. Of the ten nominees, they nailed my top five favorites of last year (“Inception”, “Black Swan”, “Toy Story 3”, “The Social Network”, “127 Hours”) and filled the other slots with respectable films (without a single embarrassment “The Blind Side” mucking things up). Despite this incredibly strong lineup, the Best Picture race has essentially been boiled down to just two films: “The King’s Speech” vs. “The Social Network”. Many pundits are calling it a battle between old and new Hollywood, “The Kings Speech” a film that seems perfectly groomed for Oscar and “The Social Network” supposedly a film for the digital age. (The irony here is that “The Kings Speech” director Tom Hooper is actually a decade younger than “The Social Network” helmer David Fincher.)
Age difference notwithstanding, “The Kings Speech” is a very good film and one that could have easily been overly sentimental (or boring). I had expected it’s Oscar bait pedigree to bother me, but I have to admit, the film really works. “The Social Network” is another very good film, but one that has been overestimated by older critics (hoping to show that they “get it”) by calling it a film that “defines a generation.” Fincher himself denies these charges and I have to agree with him. ‘Network’ is a solid B+, an incredibly well made and entertaining film that just misses it’s timeliness by failing to incorporate some of the elements that made it’s brilliant teaser trailer so chilling. I understand that the focus of the film is the creation of Facebook and not how it’s changed our lives, but as it stands the legal battle could be about almost anything (the invention of a new microwave) and it wouldn’t change 90% of what the film is about (friendship, betrayal, etc.)
It’s unfortunate that the truly daring and audacious nominees (“Inception”, “Black Swan”) don’t have a shot at the big prize but it’s still a step forward for The Academy just to see them nominated. To look over the list of past Best Picture winners and compare it to, say, the AFI Top 100 is to see two lists with very little crossover. The Best Picture race is one about the politics behind the race and often has very little to do with the actual best films of the year. Ballots are filled out by who is friends with who, which characters were likeable, which screener didn’t look too depressing to watch, who had the best parties, etc. Basically, if the Academy get it right (as they do from time to time) it can almost be viewed as an accident. So if “The King’s Speech” takes the Best Picture prize on Sunday (as is being predicted), just be rest assured that in a few years it wont really matter. The films that mean the most to people, the ones that are still being talked about and debated, the ones that really captured the zeitgeist, will be the ones considered classics, regardless of what the Academy says.
BEST DIRECTOR
My Pick: Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan
Oscar’s Pick: David Fincher – The Social Network
Spoiler: Tom Hooper – The King’s Speech
Despite Christopher Nolan’s (unforgivable) snub in this category, it’s a great lineup. Darren Aronofsky, The Coen Bros, David Fincher and David O. Russell are not exactly Awards season guys. A decade ago, (with the exception of the Coens), these guys were total outsiders and here they are a decade later, on the inside. Since Nolan wasn’t nominated, my favorite in this category would be Darren Aronofsky for his (again) brilliant work on “Black Swan”. The last 20 minutes of this film is truly stunning filmmaking, regardless of any tonal problems in the first two acts, you can’t watch the final act and not be blown away. But likely, he’ll have to wait his turn and this race will be down to Fincher and Hooper. While it’s expected that “The Kings Speech” will take the Best Picture prize, (I’m still crossing my fingers for an upset), it’s possible that the Academy could split the vote for Fincher in this category.
Hooper directs a fine cast of British actors to fine performances but there is no denying how meticulously crafted “The Social Network” is. (If you want to see the attention to detail on this film, just check out this 93 minute doc “How Did They Ever Make A Movie Of Facebook”.) While ‘Network’ is, at it’s core, a thrilling legal drama, it is one that is executed perfectly. From the crackling script by Aaron Sorkin, to the dark cinematography by Jeff Cronenweth to Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross’s unsettling score, Fincher takes what could have been a made-for-tv-movie and turns it into a Best Picture contender and one of the best films of the year. If the Academy votes with their hearts for Picture, I’m hoping they’ll go with their heads for Best Director and give it to Fincher.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
My Pick: Christopher Nolan – Inception
Oscar’s Pick: David Seidler – The King’s Speech
Spoiler: none.
Arguably one of the most original screenplays of the year, “Inception” has probably also been the one to inspire the most debate. Unfortunately for Nolan, his film is up against “The Kings Speech” which will likely steamroll it’s competition in most major categories. It’s unfortunate since Original Screenplay is usually that category that awards the films too daring for Best Picture (“Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind”, “Talk To Her”, “Pulp Fiction”). But it looks like (barring a major upset) it will be given to Seidler for his sturdy historical drama.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
My Pick: Toy Story 3
Oscar’s Pick: The Social Network
Spoiler: none.
The good news for Aaron Sorkin is that due to his screenplay for “The Social Network” being loosely based on Ben Mezrich’s book “The Accidental Billionaires: The Founding of Facebook” he will not be going up against “The Kings Speech” in this category. So even if “The Social Network” gets shutout of Picture and Director and Actor, it will go home with at least one major prize. My favorite “adapted” screenplay in this category was “Toy Story 3”, which was “adapted” from the first two Toy Story films. Also: the Academy has really strange rules about this kind of thing.
BEST ACTRESS
My Pick: Natalie Portman – Black Swan
Oscar’s Pick: Natalie Portman – Black Swan
Spoiler: Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right
Annette Bening, perpetually the bridesmaid in this category, was beat recently (twice) by Hilary Swank. She might have had her chance this year for “The Kids Are All Right” with Swank’s “Conviction” failing to garner many positive notices. Unfortunately for her, Natalie Portman gives the performance of her career in “Black Swan”. Onscreen for every moment of the film, the camera usually never more than a few feet away, she bares everything in this film. It’s an exhausting, physical, emotional performance and one that she’ll likely never be able to top. (Can you even imagine a part that would give her the opportunity to do more than she does here?) Even with the films shifts in tone from campy theatricality to psychological horror, Portman nails every moment. She is perfect.
BEST ACTOR
My Pick: James Franco – 127 Hours
Oscar’s Pick: Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
Spoiler: none.
My favorite performance in this category was James Franco for his gripping (and somehow also hilarious) performance in “127 Hours”. I’m usually not a fan of true life tales or giving awards to actors based on how well they can imitate another celebrity, so credit to Franco and director Danny Boyle for crafting a real performance here. Many will stay away from the film because of an endlessly discussed 2 minute scene late in the film but they’re missing out. Boyle’s intense, visceral film (like Franco’s character) will put you through hell first, but you’ll come out feeling like life is beautiful. That said, Colin Firth will be walking away with his first Oscar in this category. Even though he gave a better performance last year in “A Single Man”, better late than never is usually the case with the Academy.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
My Pick: Melissa Leo – The Fighter
Oscar’s Pick: Melissa Leo – The Fighter
Spoiler: Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit
Melissa Leo has been nominated before but it looks like she might actually walk home with the prize this year, despite some stiff competition (even from her co-star Amy Adams). Leo was recently criticized for taking out her own For Your Consideration ads so if the PR fallout from that ends up affecting votes, it’s possible that first-timer Hailee Steinfeld could win. Despite being a huge fan of the Coen Bros., I didn’t think “True Grit” was among their best work. Steinfeld, however, did deliver a great performance but it is of course a leading one, not supporting. Because she is a newcomer she was able to squeeze into the Supporting category, so she might have a shot over Leo who has far less screen time.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
My Pick: Christian Bale – The Fighter
Oscar’s Pick: Christian Bale – The Fighter
Spoiler: Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech
While it’s possible Geoffrey Rush might have a chance here, if you have seen “The Fighter” it’s hard to imagine anyone else but Christian Bale taking this prize. Bale is incredible in this film, you really can’t take your eyes off him. As Dicky Eklund, crackhead and trainer for his brother Mickey Ward, it’s a completely transformative performance. David O. Russell’s real-life boxing drama has a real energy and authenticity that sets it apart from typical sports films and allows Bale’s performance to feel completely alive. Not once during the film do you picture Bruce Wayne/Batman onscreen and that’s a true accomplishment.
